Science of Cycles

Droughts in California are mainly controlled by wind, not by the amount of evaporated moisture in the air, new research has found. The findings were published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, on June 30th 2016.

The researchers found that disturbances in atmospheric circulation, the large-scale movement of air, have the most effect on drought because they can affect factors that will cause it to rain more or less. The study co-authors are Qinjian Jin, a postdoctoral researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Zong-Liang Yang, a professor in the Department of Geological Sciences; and Paul Dirmeyer, a professor at George Mason University.

You will notice this new study affirms the 1998 Battros Equation, but not unexpectedly stops short of evaluating the “cause” of the shifting ocean and jet stream currents. I dedicated two chapters in my 2005 book “Solar Rain: The Earth Changes Have Begun”; to this ongoing disconnect which amazingly was induced by the respective agencies (NASA-NOAA) reservedly sharing information. Although it has improved measurably over the last five years, it really did come down to the Left Hand unaware of the Right Hand’s doings.

_1998 Equation

Although a strong El Niño in the winter of 2015 helped diminish the drought in California which had been in a severe drought since 2011. The current drought is caused by a high-pressure system that disturbs the atmospheric circulation. The development of the high-pressure system is related to a sea surface temperature pattern in the Pacific Ocean, according to research cited by the study.

The research increases the understanding of how the water cycle is related to extreme events and could eventually help in predicting droughts and floods, said lead author Jiangfeng Wei, a research scientist at The University of Texas at Austin’s Jackson School of Geosciences.


The researchers analyzed 30-year data sets that recorded precipitation, ocean evaporation, surface wind speed and atmospheric pressure on and near the west coast of the United States. These are all factors that influence the water cycle in California. One of the difficulties of studying the water cycle, Wei said, is that the water sources for precipitation cannot be directly observed, so the team also used a mathematical moisture-tracking method and high-resolution model simulations.

Their analysis showed that although moisture evaporated from the Pacific Ocean is the major source for California precipitation, the amount of water evaporated did not strongly influence precipitation in California, except in the cases of very heavy flooding. That’s because the amount of water evaporated from this ocean region does not change much year by year, researchers found, and did not cause rain to occur more or less often.


“Ocean evaporation has little direct influence on California precipitation because of its relatively weak variability,” Wei said. Instead, the researchers found that disturbances in atmospheric circulation, the large-scale movement of air, have the most effect on drought because they can affect factors that will cause it to rain more or less.


“The topic is extremely timely as current and future climate change would mean more changes in extreme events such as droughts and floods,” Yang said. “Understanding this asymmetric contribution of ocean evaporation to drought and flooding in California will ultimately help us make better predictions.”



BREAKING NEWS: Three New Findings Hint to Purpose of Concern – Galactic Charged
Particles in Earth’s Path

by Mitch Battros                               July 3rd 2016

Mitch Winthrop meddd

I suggest the purpose of these three studies released yesterday, appear to imply interest in the action of venturing funnels of charged particles, often referred to as Active Galactic Nuclei or (AGN), heading into our solar systems path. Such an event could cause serious damage to Earth’s ozone layer, which protects us from harmful radiation.

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mini jets of material m

There is good reason to be concerned of a stream of charged particles produced by a gamma ray burst, supernova, quasar or galactic center black hole AGN. Why? Because it has happened before in near history and no doubt some number of times over vast history. The last event occurred in the year 774-775 A.D.

In this 2012 discovery, scientist Fusa Miyake announced the detection of high levels of the isotope Carbon-14 and Beryllium-10 in tree rings formed in 775 AD, suggesting that a burst of radiation struck the Earth in the year 774 or 775. Carbon-14 and Beryllium-10 form when radiation from space collides with nitrogen atoms, which then decay to these heavier forms of carbon and beryllium.


Lead researcher Dr Ralph Neuhӓuser at Astrophysics Institute of the University of Jena in Germany said: “If the gamma ray burst had been much closer to the Earth it would have caused significant harm to the biosphere. But even thousands of light years away, a similar event today could cause havoc with the sensitive electronic systems that advanced societies have come to depend on. The challenge now is to establish how rare such Carbon-14 spikes are i.e. how often such radiation bursts hit the Earth. In the last 3000 years, the maximum age of trees alive today, only one such event appears to have taken place.”

New study published July 1st 2016 – Scientists from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), the Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics, and the National Research University Higher School of Economics have devised a method of distinguishing black holes from compact massive objects that are externally indistinguishable from one another. The method involves studying the energy spectrum of particles moving in the vicinity — in one case it will be continuous and in the other it will be discrete. The findings have been published in Physical Review D.

schwarzshild radius m

Black holes, which were predicted by Einstein’s theory of general relativity, have an event horizon — a boundary beyond which nothing, even light, can return to the outside world. The radius of this boundary is called the Schwarzschild radius, in physical terms it is the radius of an object for which the escape velocity is greater than the speed of light, which means that nothing is able to overcome its gravity.

Astrophysicists have not yet been able to “see” a black hole directly, but there are many objects that are “suspected” of being black holes. Most scientists are sure that in the center of our galaxy there is a supermassive black hole; there are binary systems where one of the components is most likely a black hole. However, some astrophysicists believe that there may be compact massive objects that fall very slightly short of black hole status; their range is only a little larger than the Schwarzschild radius. It may be the case that some of the “suspects” are in fact objects such as these. From the outside, however, they are not distinguishable from black holes.

 radiation black hole

“We examined the scalar quantum field around a black hole and a compact object and found that around the collapsing object – it is a black hole; explains FedorPopov, of Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), there are no bound states, but around the compact object there are.”

Second study published July 1st 2016 – Some galaxies pump out vast amounts of energy from a very small volume of space, typically not much bigger than our own solar system. The cores of these galaxies, so called Active Galactic Nuclei or AGNs, are often hundreds of millions or even billions of light years away, so are difficult to study in any detail. Natural gravitational ‘microlenses’ can provide a way to probe these objects, and now a team of astronomers have seen hints of the extreme AGN brightness changes that hint at their presence.

synchrontron emission m

The energy output of an AGN is often equivalent to that of a whole galaxy of stars. This is an output so intense that most astronomers believe only gas falling in towards a supermassive black hole – an object with many millions of times the mass of the Sun – can generate it. As the gas spirals towards the black hole it speeds up and forms a disc, which heats up and releases energy before the gas meets its demise.

A research team from the University of Edinburgh, explain if a planet or star in an intervening galaxy passes directly between the Earth and a more distant AGN, over a few years or so they act as a lens, focusing and intensifying the signal coming from near the black hole. This type of lensing, due to a single star, is termed microlensing. As the lensing object travels across the AGN, emitting regions are amplified to an extent that depends on their size, providing astronomers with valuable clues.

 Monochromatic Emission m

There are expected to be fewer than 100 active AGN microlensing events on the sky at any one time, but only some will be at or near their peak brightness. The big hope for the future is the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a project the UK recently joined. From 2019 on, it will survey half the sky every few days, so has the potential to watch the characteristic changes in the appearance of the AGNs as the lensing events take place.

Third study published July 1st 2016 – A study of gravitationally lensed images of four mini-jets of material ejected from a central supermassive black hole has revealed the structure of these distant galaxies in unprecedented detail. This has enabled astronomers to trace particle emissions to a very small region at the heart of the quasars, and helped to solve a 50-year-old puzzle about their source. The results will be presented by Dr Neal Jackson at the National Astronomy Meeting in Nottingham on Friday, 1st July.

gravitational lensing

“In radio-loud quasars, the intense radio emission clearly comes from vast jets of material blasted out from the region around a central black hole. By contrast, the radio emission from radio-quiet quasars is extremely feeble and difficult to see, so it has been hard to identify its source,” explained Jackson of the Jodrell Bank Center for Astrophysics in Manchester. “To study most radio-quiet quasars, we will have to wait until future extremely large telescopes, like the Square Kilometer Array, come online. However, if we find radio-quiet quasars which are lensed by galaxies in front of them, we can use the increased brightness to be able to study them with today’s radio telescopes.”

 new equation 2012